Rebounding from the Bitcoin plunge! However, the short-term sale sign remains on?
Bitcoin quotes with short-term sales signs lit are plummeting. The volatility is gradually increasing, although it is linked to the gold and silver markets, which are safe assets. In the case of short-term investments such as futures, be careful not to be rejected by simply following the reaction.
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Bitcoin plummeted to 118 million yen
Last week on bitcoinThe short-term sale sign is litHowever, after that, the Bitcoin market price plummeted to 8 million yen level on August 22, and dropped to 120 million yen level at early morning time on August 8.
It seems that many investors are willing to buy if bitcoin falls, but it may be honest that it is hard to get out of such a sharp fall.
Regarding the cause of the decline in the Bitcoin price this time,Flood in Sichuan, ChinaThere are some voices that point out, but what about?
Let's take a look at the chart.
As for the chart, Ichimoku Kinko Hyo and MACD are put on the daily chart of Bitcoin.
I pointed out last timeMACDIt is,Selling sign continuesTherefore, it seems safer to forego buying a bargain at the current timing.
How about the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo?
This is a downtrend that looks like a model for technical analysis.High price of 132 million yenIt shouldn't be on top of what you put onConversion lineInterrupt. After thatThe conversion line is the resistance lineHas become.
And the yesterday's sharp fall fell below the reference line, and if it seems to fall further from here, the conversion line and the reference line on the daily barDead crossIs likely to happen.
I want to pay more attentionLag lineso,What has been on the solid line so far has fallen yesterday and has come into contact with the price 26 days ago (solid line) and entangled movementHas become.
The lag line is a very important sign,A strong sell sign when going from top to bottomIt becomes.
In other words, the Bitcoin exchange rate today on the 26th may have reached a turning point, and I am very worried about which way to move.
1. Penetrating below ⇒ down market
2. Will return to the top without falling ⇒ Continued upward market
3. It becomes a movement related to the solid line (price 26 days ago) ⇒ range market
As for the possibility, the case of 3 is the most common, but there are also cases where it breaks down but returns to the solid line and becomes a range market.
As of August 8, the bitcoin price is above the clouds and can be seen as a bullish market, but it has already fallen below the conversion line and the reference line, and the dead cross is approaching, and the lag line contacts the solid line. When, The three roles are negativeYou can see the possibility.
The bitcoin market has been supported by clouds and has been rising since it appeared on the cloud in the daily Ichimoku Kinko Hyokin on April 4 after the crash due to the corona shock. It seems that it will get a lot of attention.
What is your relationship with the Sichuan Great Flood in China?
In the Bitcoin market plunge this time, it occurred at the same timing.Flood in Sichuan, ChinaIt seems that it is affecting a lot.
Again, the water damage in China! It seems that you can hear the voice, but Speaking of Sichuan, many people say that due to the low cost of electricity.Bitcoin mining farmIt has been pointed out that the mining farm may be affected by flood damage.
Actually this isIn Sichuan, a big flood occurred in August 2018 and in August last year, as well as this time the bitcoin price has plummeted temporarily.doing.
However, the plunge caused by the floods so far is a temporary problem, and it has shown a rebound on the next day, so if the flood of Bitcoin this time is the biggest factor in the flood in Sichuan It is expected to repel.
However, as expected, MACD may not have issued a sale sign in anticipation of the flood in Sichuan, so this time it is a different move.
Bitcoin quotes linked to gold and silver quotes
I point out more often than beforeSafe asset quotes such as gold and silver quotesWhat is going on?
Many of you may already know, but as I pointed out last timeShort-term sell sign for the entire safety asset marketHowever, since then, both the gold and silver prices have plummeted, and although the timing is a little late, the bitcoin price has plummeted in a form linked to it.
Currently, the gold and silver prices are undergoing intense movements during the day and the volatility is high.
At the timing, it seems that Bitcoin quotes started a little later due to the flood information in Sichuan Province, but it seems that it will gradually move closer to the gold and silver quotes.
The safe-asset market price would not have been adjusted so easily, as many would expect it to rise in the medium to long term.
However, it seems that there are adjustments involving price ranges, and it may be better to keep in mind the possibility that the adjustment will fall further or that the adjustment period will be prolonged.
The short-term sale sign of the safe asset market price remains on
Not only bitcoin, but also the gold and silver quotes, which are said to be safe assets, the short-term sales signs continue to light up.
What's going on with the gold quotes?
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo and MACD are put on the daily chart of the gold market.
As last time,Selling sign is lit on daily MACDAlthough it is,Buy sign lights on weekly MACDTherefore, there is no change in the direction of short-term selling of medium- to long-term buying.
In the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, both the conversion line and the reference line have fallen below the August 8th line, but the situation is such that it is reluctant to lower them.
Lag lineIs close to the solid line, and the situation when touching the solid line is noticeable.
If we go under the current circumstances, we will be in contact on August 8 at the latest, so there is a good chance that we will move up or down from around tomorrow today.
Since the MACD sale sign is lit, if you move down,August 8 lows, cloud cap lineTogetherAround 1,860 yenSince it is located at the place, it seems that this price range will be strongly conscious.
Whether the cloud becomes a support lineIs also noteworthy, but even if there is a big drop,It seems that the return to around 1,860 yen will be quick.
If it falls,Three-story ceilingSo you can seeA big point is whether to break below 1,860 yenIt seems that this will be the sameBitcoin market price will be greatly affected.
Attack on the 25th moving average
Let's look at the relationship between Bitcoin and the 25th MA.
March 725-day moving averageThe price has been moving on the 25-day moving average since it surpassed theFrom August 8st to 21th, movements around the moving averageAnd,Moving below the 25th moving average from todayIs becoming.
The 25-day moving average, which had been upwards, is now paralleling, turning downwards as it seems to plunge from here.To do.
If the 25-day moving average moves downwards, the adjustment period may take a long time, but it is more likely to depend on the movement of the gold market, and if the gold price adjustment seems to be short, the bitcoin price adjustment Will also be short term.
Summary of repulsion from Bitcoin plunge
The Bitcoin market has been showing strong market development since the Corona Shock.Adjustment period with short-term sale sign lightingIs greeted.
I would like to keep up with the sudden rebound just because I showed very strong movement so far, but if I followed it easily, it would be eliminated.
Currently, it is not the market price of Bitcoin alone,Link to safe asset markets such as gold and silver marketsSince it is moving, I would like to see the market price without panic.
Of course, if you are thinking about long-term investment, you may already have a place to buy, and in the case of futures or CFDs that are short-term investments, we would like to avoid easily following the reaction.
In any case,Places where we want to respond without hastily until the short-term sale sign is resolved.
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