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2020.09.03 Last update
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Bitcoin sale sign cancellation! What happens when the Fed accepts 2% inflation?

Money policy

With the Fed Chairman's "temporary toleration of 2% inflation" statement, the short-term selling sign shown on the daily chart has disappeared in the Bitcoin market where prices are returning. However, since it has returned to a neutral position, it seems that it will continue to be linked to the gold market.

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Financial Policy


It looks like Fed Chair Powell made an important statement!Inflation rate temporarily accepted at 2% levelWhat? ?

Financial markets have moved a lot with Fed Chair Powell's remarks!


Fed (Federal Reserve Board)Chairman Powell at the Chairman's speech on August 8, Japan timeIf US prices remain below 2%, we aim for inflation to exceed 2% for the time being."Was announced.

In other words, to reach the 2% goal,Inflation above 2% is acceptable in the short termSo, even though it was expected, the Fed is again strongReflation policyIt has become a proof.

At the same time, Chairman Powell made a statement about the employment rate. So far, the Fed's policy of lowering the interest rate when the employment rate falls and raising the rate when the employment rate rises is reviewed, and if the employment rate continues to fall, mitigation measures will be taken. ThoughEven if the employment rate rises, we will not raise the rate for the time beingAnd the view.

In other words, ahead of the US presidential election, it became clear that President Trump's intention was to be largely incorporated into monetary policy, and that the reflation policy would be stronger than ever.

With the spread of Chairman Powell's remarks, the financial markets fell into a turmoil.

It seems that it was not possible to measure the true meaning of President Powell's remarks, but the financial market is gradually rising after the turmoil.

Now, the Fed's policy is likely to have a major impact on the world economy and financial markets. What impact will it have on the bitcoin and virtual currency markets?


Market prices of safe assets are large and volatile



The times when it was said that Japan lost 20 years,The Bank of Japan is tightening monetary policy through deflationary policy as it reflects on the bubbleI took it.

Not to mention the consequences, Japan's stock market has fallen behind as far behind as the only developed country in the world, making it an unattractive market.

Its position as a financial market in Asia was threatened by Hong Kong and Singapore, and this situation continues until the advent of Abenomics.

According to one theory,The US Fed is making great reference to Japan's failed policyIt is said that the financial market has been given a sign that it will continue to adopt a strong reflation policy.

The statement by Chair Powell has caused a turmoil in the financial markets. Not only the stock market, but also the gold, silver and bitcoin quotes, which are said to be safe assets, moved significantly.


The chart is a 4-hour chart of the gold market, but immediately after Chairman Powell's statement on August 8About $70doing.

After that, it calms down and is slowly bought to return the price.

Expansion of reflation policy by the FedInvites to sell dollars in the long runIt seems that this is a volatile matter, because at this time the dollar buying in the market proceeded in the short term, which strongly affected the gold market and other factors.

Let's also look at Bitcoin.


The chart is a 4-hour chart of Bitcoin.

Recently,Bitcoin is linked to the movement of gold and silver prices, but there is a time lagIt is often seen, but again at this time, after a slight time lagDrop to 118 million yen leveldoing.

For the Bitcoin market,Expanding Fed reflationary policy is a factorHowever, the price has been recovering over time because it has fallen after a temporary dollar purchase has occurred.

After that, the number of items for sale decreased, and the price was high as of September 9.127 yen levelI am returning to.


Is there a turmoil before the US presidential election?

The announcement of the expansion of reflation policy at this timing has a very positive impact on the economy suffering from the corona shock, andGood news for financial marketsIt can be said.

However, the market doesn't seem to be reacting very straightforwardly.

The biggest reason isTwo months later the US presidential electionNeedless to say.

In the past, there was an anomaly that the stock market was high in the year of the US presidential election, but at the same time, there is an anomaly that there is a turmoil before the election.

Compared to corona shockLehman shockWill occur in September 2008, but with the inauguration of the first Obama administration, a strong reflationary policy will be adopted, and the financial markets will recover from the bottom.

Twelve years after the Lehman shock, 12,Corona shockOccurs, and the world economy is in turmoil.

The financial market has returned significantly since the Corona Shock in March, but will the US reflation expansion plan at this timing continue to steadily form an uptrend through the presidential election?

OrDegassing will be done sometime in September and OctoberIs it?

After the presidential election on November 11, the financial markets often rise sharply, as was the case with the previous Trump market,Be careful of the upheaval in September and OctoberI want to do that.

I am very worried that the gold, silver and bitcoin quotes, which are said to be safe assets, have gone wild,It could have been some signCannot be denied.


Bitcoin sell sign has been eliminated


Well, it was on the daily chart of BitcoinShort-term sale signWhat happened?


The chart is a Bitcoin daily chart.

MACDThe short-term sales sign that was on the market was almost disappearing, the feeling of overheating also decreased, and since the daily line Bollinger band middle line (20th moving average line) was surpassed,ResolvedYou can think of it.

Normally, it is a measure to expand US reflation, which is a positive factor for safe assets, but at the present time it has not shown so much movement, and neither the gold market price, the silver market price, nor the bitcoin market has shown a big move.

In other words,Although the short-term sale sign has been resolved, it has returned to a neutral position on the chart at the moment.By the way, it doesn't seem that there is a sign of rising purchases.


What's going on in September for Bitcoin?

What's going on in September for Bitcoin?

Two months ahead of the US presidential election, the Abe Cabinet, which had formed a stable government for a long time in Japan, will end, and a new successor cabinet will be born.

Some might think that whoever becomes prime minister has nothing to do with the stock market, but Trump or Biden could change the U.S. stock market significantly, and even in Japan, overseas investors will play a central role. Under the current circumstances, there is a strong possibility that a great influence will come out on who the prime minister of the successor cabinet will be.

Including here,In September, there is a turbulent atmosphere.

Looking closely at the Bitcoin chart above, at this timing127 million yenIt seems that it will end and it will fall,Possibility of forming the Sanson CeilingIn the case that there is noBreaking 118 million yenIt is possible that there will be a considerable amount of selling pressure.

However, at the moment,Depending on the movement of the gold marketThis is a strong aspect, and it seems unlikely that the Bitcoin price will fall independently unless the gold price falls significantly.

If for some reason the US dollar suddenly gets bought, the safe-asset market price will also be affected, but if not, a big decline shouldn't be too much of a concern.

vice versa,The fall in safe asset prices from buying dollars offers a buying space that Bitcoin doesn't wantIt will be done for me.


Summary of bitcoin sale sign cancellation


It was on the Bitcoin daily chartThe short-term sale sign has disappearedHowever, at present, the buying sign does not light up, and to the lastNeutralI have returned to the position of.

Fed reflation expansion measuresShould be good news for safe asset markets such as Bitcoin, but the reason for not responding obediently is that it was close to two months later.US presidential electionThere is likely to be too much of an impact.

As for the view of the Bitcoin market, I would like to take a bullish attitude towards the US presidential election on November 9 with the possibility that there is a turmoil in the September and October markets.

Rebounding from the Bitcoin plunge! However, the short-term sale sign remains on?

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Last Updated Date: 2020/09/03

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