Bitcoin plunge! What is the relevance to that SoftBank G option buying?
It is rumored that SoftBank G's options strategy has plunged the US Nasdaq market. Similarly, it has fallen sharply compared to the sharp decline of Bitcoin and the linked gold market price, but it seems that the hedge fund that held the high-tech stock of Nasdaq is making a profit of BTC. is.
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A sharp drop from Bitcoin Saksanson
High price after corona shock132 yen levelBitcoin with (August 8)Short-term sale signLights up and begins to fall gradually.About 15 yen plungeWas.
Then on September 9104 yen levelThe low price of, but as of September 9Around 107 10,000 yenIt is said that it is changing in.
By the way, various information has been released regarding the sudden fall of Bitcoin, but let's check the chart first.
Before,There is a possibility that the head and shoulders are attached, and if it seems to fall below 118 million yen, there is a high possibility that selling pressure will increase.I pointed out that, but that is exactly the movement, and selling from the Sanson ceiling is a difficult market.
Let's check the Bitcoin daily chart.
The daily chart of Bitcoin shows thatThree-story ceilingIt is in the form of, and it has plummeted from the point where it fell below the support line in the 118 million yen range.
The long shadow line on September 9 is the longest since the long shadow line attached at the time of the corona shock, so it does not repel so easily.It seems to indicate that.
Expanding the band width of the Bollinger bandIt seems that it will fall below the low price of 9 million yen on September 5th.Danger of breaking 100 million yenWill come out.
In the Bitcoin market from the corona shock to July, there was a strong tendency for shopping to come in when the price fell below 7 million yen, so tentatively this time as well.Need attention if there is less than 100 million yen.
At the moment, the trading volume has not increased so much, so it is unlikely that the market will fall sharply as it was in the past, but it will decline with the trading volume (volume) in the future. Be careful in some cases.
What is the reason why Bitcoin plummeted in gold market comparison?
Commodities called safe assets such as gold and silver are usually bought by many investors as risk hedges.
For Bitcoin,Digital goldAs well as gold and silver, it is bought by many investors as a safe asset for risk hedging.
Therefore, in the market called these safe assets,Price transition is a linkOften doA strong tendency that if the gold price rises, silver, platinum, and bitcoin also rise, and if it falls, it will also decline.there is.
However,Looking at the time of the Bitcoin plunge this time, gold, silver and platinum prices have not dropped so much.
Bitcoin is plunging as if it had some kind of bad material. What is the reason for this?
The point here is that it has been widely taken up in economic news recently.Softbank G, buy a lot of optionsIs the news.
Many people think this, but in fact it has a lot to do with the news mentioned above.
This time, SoftBank Group purchased a large amount of high-tech stocks such as AppleCall optionsIt is said that,Top causes of Nasdaq market crashIt is also said that.
Now, as I will explain later, what is the relationship between the SoftBank G news and the Bitcoin plunge?
Gold and Bitcoin are very popular with individual investors,The buyers who have supported the uptrend recently are buying risk hedges by hedge funds.It seems that.
In other words,Insurance in case of a stock market crashAs a result, a certain amount of new investment funds were flowing into gold and bit coins, but it is thought that safe assets such as gold and bit coins have been secured due to the recent US stock market crash.
Additionally,Ordinary hedge funds carry out risk hedging mainly on gold, silver, etc.But,A hedge fund investing in high-tech stocks whose main battlefield is the Nasdaq market. Many are investing as a hedge in Bitcoin, which is expected as a next-generation technology rather than goldIt is
The strong move of Bitcoin into 2020 is very likely due to the buying of these hedge funds, which means:This time the Bitcoin plunge is largely due to the sale of BTC by these hedge fundsIs considered to be.
Compared to New York Dow, the Nasdaq market has experienced a significant decline.
In other words, it is highly likely that high-tech stock-based hedge funds in the Nasdaq market will suffer a large loss, and that is why Bitcoin is selling more than gold and silver.
By the way, even in the Japanese market, the Nikkei average has fallen sharply, but the decline rate of TOPIX, which has a high ratio of bank stocks, is not so large.
Softbank G's call option buying is the tip of the iceberg
According to some reports, the president of SoftBank G made a big hit of one or eight by buying call options, and there are articles that seem to have caused the stock market to crash.
Is that really true?
Those who are familiar with option trading will understand, but it is unlikely that individual investors will make such investments.
In this case, probablyAn option strategy to smoothly earn profits on Nasdaq market shares (Apple, etc.) held by SoftBank G in large quantitiesIt would be more natural to think.
In other words,SoftBank G used call options as insuranceVery likelyThe purpose was to smoothly make a profit on a large amount of Apple and Netfrix stocks.Isn't it?
This is a method that is commonly used by other hedge funds and is not a special method used only by SoftBank G.
However, there are many investors who felt that the market was strange due to the unnaturally rising Nasdaq market and the rise of the VIX index called fear index, together with the news of SoftBank GThe market was in turmoil as it would continue to sell in large quantitiesThat doesn't seem wrong.
Where to buy Bitcoin
Apparently, this Bitcoin plunge is likely to have been confirmed as part of a portfolio, not that Bitcoin is selling bad material.
Of course, there is no doubt that the hedge fund that sold Bitcoin this time was a major investor in the Bitcoin market.
Bitcoin is likely to have been sold due to the decline in the Nasdaq market,Bitcoin will be purchased as a risk hedge when Nasdaq markets stop declining and the uptrend returns againIt's easy to imagine.
I want to buy when the bitcoin goes downI think that there are a lot of investors who think this way.
Where is the shop, the only thing you can ask about the market price isWhen the Nasdaq market in the United States stopped loweringThere seems to be a great opportunity.
This Friday,Major SQIs coming.
The market price is often rough before the major SQ, but this time it should be cautioned.
Summary of Bitcoin plunge
XNUM X Year X NUM X Month X NUM X DayBitcoin suddenly plummeted to about 106 million yen at about 15 yendoing.
Bitcoin is a safe asset that has been linked to gold prices, but this timeBitcoin's decline is noticeableis.
Apparently, this plunge seems to be related to the Nasdaq market,The trigger was the news of the Japanese SoftBank Group buying call options.It seems likely that it was.
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