Thorough verification of the possibility of exceeding 12 million yen in the Bitcoin December market!
Bitcoin's August high of 8 million yen is likely to be a high for the time being and is likely to be adjusted for a while. I would like to carefully aim for entry timing while being aware of the presidential election on November 132. There is a Bitcoin anomaly in December.
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Bitcoin August highs of 8 million yen as expected
This blog on July 7 "Bitcoin soars! Thorough prediction of future movements!"There is a milestone at 131 million yen and attention is requiredI'm predicting to say.
Apparently the summer market price of Bitcoin is thisAdjustment period with a high price of 131 million yenIt seems to be in.
For more information, see the July 7th blog, but here's a quick noteWhy this high is not so easy to break throughI will explain about.
The chart is a weekly chart of Bitcoin.
The price range of 131 million yen isFibonacci retracement 44 times from the corona shock low of 6 yen to the high of 110 million in JuneAnd this price range isPrice range that has been a milestone many times in the pastAnd in the old daysHigh price just before the big surge in November 2017It has become.
By the way,In December 2017, the market price soared after breaking through the 12 million yen level..
For your reference, the chart at the time of 2017 is also attached. (Bitcoin daily chart at the time of 2017)
In the 2017 market, we adjusted the speed by hitting the 11 million yen level in November, and in December it became a big surge market if it passed the 131 million yen level at once.230 million yenI climbed up to the platform.
Since then, it has been a turning point in the market several times, and it is in this price range.Points that many investors pay attention toHas become.
further. Returning to the original chart,August 8thIs just from the February 2 high of 13 million yen, which was the year-to-date high of this year just before the corona shock.Week 26AndMatches the basic values in the Ichimoku Kinko Hyodoing.
In other words,Many investors were paying attention to the high price of 8 million yen on August 17, and conversely, it may not be easy to get rid of the high price here.Will come out.
If the weekly MACD also seems to fall as it is, there is a possibility of a dead cross, and if the Bollinger band also seems to break below the mid band (center line) which is the support line, there is a concern that it will fall below 100 million yen.
In this way, it is thought that the high price in the 132 million yen range will not come out so easily, and this adjustment will take some time.
What is the timing to start moving after the adjustment period?
The price of Bitcoin at the time of writing rebounded from 104 million yen to 115 million yenTrend around 113 million yendoing.
Gold, silver and platinum prices are also rebounding, so is there a slight buyback as a safe asset market?
However, it may be difficult to assume that Bitcoin will also rise as a safe asset market, especially since the gold market is likely to continue its adjustment period.
There may be an idea that the current timing is buying, and there will be no problem if it is a small investment when considering long-term investment, but it seems that it is not necessary to force entry in the case of short-term investment.
The volatility of the entire stock market is liable to fluctuate because it is before the US presidential election, and it would be good to have a stance that entry opportunities will come by November 11, the presidential election day. ??
Bitcoin December market price expected this year
US presidential election to be held on November 11Is expected to have a significant impact on financial markets, not in recent years.
Basically,No matter which one wins, there are no major changes in US monetary policyHowever, it seems highly likely that the financial markets will move significantly around November.
I think Bitcoin buying will arrive before November 11rd in the earliest cases, but depending on the results of the presidential election, it may be delayed after December.
Let's check the monthly chart of Bitcoin.
Until December 2017,Anomaly that Bitcoin will hit a high price in DecemberExisted,Lows in December 2018 and 2019Is attached.
In the case of 2020, it seems that the anomaly will not be able to be relied on because the US presidential election, which has such a big impact, is just before.If Bitcoin does not break above the August high of 8 million yen as mentioned above and long-term adjustments below 132 million yen continue, December may be the place to buy.Will come out enough.
Even in that case, the lows have been rounded up to 2018 and 2019, and although the corona shock lows have fallen below the 2019 lows, it is unlikely that they will fall that much.
Of course, if you think that the down market after the big surge in December 2017 is over, this year'sPossibility to get highs in DecemberYou can think that there are enough.
Bought as a risk hedge for tech stocks
In the previous blog, the down market price of Bitcoin from the August high of 8 million yen wasBitcoin selling that was invested as a risk hedge of a hedge fund that manages mainly high-tech stocksI explained that.
Of course, these high-tech stock-centric hedge funds are likely to invest and buy Bitcoin as a new risk hedge.
Last time, in order to determine this timingNasdaq Market TrendsI wanted to pay attention to, but I can say for sure that once the Nasdaq market has been adjusted, the inflow of funds into Bitcoin will begin to increase.
The same can be said for the gold, silver and platinum markets, but from the altcoin that remains hidden behind Bitcoin, as the silver market, which had a strong sense of delay compared to the gold market, was booming. It seems quite possible that big coins will come out unintentionally from now on.
Why Bitcoin will hit a high of over 12 million yen after December
Case of coming to get high price in DecemberAs a result, it is expected that the financial market will explode after November 11, but the market development will be similar to the previous 3 Trump market.
of course,It is mainly the stock market that will explode, and will you even buy gold and Bitcoin, which are considered safe assets as risk hedges?However, in this era of global monetary easing, the hedge funds mentioned above purchase a certain amount as risk hedges, soGold, silver, platinum and Bitcoin (probably altcoins such as Ethereum) will also rise as the stock market rises.It will be.
In terms of anomalies, it is likely that December 2020 will also hit a high or low price, and even if it is a low price, it is unlikely that it will fall below the low price of 12 yen in December 2019.
Then, what price range can we expect in the case of getting a high price?
In this case,August 8 exceeded the high price of 17 million yenWill be done.
It will be difficult to get out of here, so you may have to try several times, butAn uptrend occurs once it exitsAnd is considered to be the next milestoneA level that is conscious of around 151 million yenIt becomes.
Needless to say, this levelJune 2018 highs in the 6 million yen rangeFibonacci retracement from the corona shock low of 44 yen to the return high of 6 million yen in June.1.618 times levelThis is the level that many investors are aware of.
また, There are many points of time theory in the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo after mid-DecemberIt is also the timing when it is easy to get a high price or a low price.
If the market is developing at a low price, the timing of entryAnd converselyIf the market develops to a high price, the timing of the settlement of the hedge fund will be profitable, so it is easy to set a high price once.It seems to be.
Bitcoin December Market Summary
Finally, the biggest big event in the last few years, "US presidential electionIs approaching.
Financial markets are already about to move, recognizing that many investors will not change much in US monetary policy no matter which one wins.
This year, due to the emergency economic measures of each country from the corona shock,Market environment that financial markets cannot hope forHas become.
That's why the timing of entry is very important.Bitcoin buying placeI also want to carefully aim for.
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