Relationship between Bitcoin and hedge funds!That Softbank G also lost about 150 billion yen before?
Hedge funds are rumored to be a new player in the Bitcoin market.Hedge funds are funds that aim for high yields by using hedges, and Bitcoin may be bought as a substitute for gold, which has the highest price ever and is wary of high prices.
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Why Bitcoin is moving steadily
Record high of 2017 million yen level in December 12Since then, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency markets have been forced to decline for a long time.
At the moment,December 2018 12 yen level is the bottom priceHowever, due to the corona shock in March 202040 yen levelAs sold toThere is anxiety in the cryptocurrency market that there is always the possibility of a sharp dropWas.
It has long been said that the market price will rise when institutional investors enter the virtual currency market, and that the market price will rise when general investors can easily invest in the virtual currency market with ETFs. The current situation is that it is difficult to realize.
This has the problem that the players (participants) in the virtual currency market such as Bitcoin have been mainly individual investors for a long time, and the entry of other players such as institutional investors will bring new investment funds. It was expected that the market would bring a sense of stability similar to that of the stock market.
However, apparentlyChange to this trend in 2020Seems to be out.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc. have been on an upward trend since early 2020,Although it plummeted during the corona shock, the lowest price set in December 2018 did not break.It can be considered as a proof of that.
Even after the corona shock, it quickly surpassed the pre-corona highs compared to other investment markets, showing a very strong repulsive force.
Of course, it seems that many individual investors bought in the cheap phase, but it is unlikely that it will show such a strong movement by itself, and it is highly likely that new players are entering the virtual currency market. It seems.
そ し て,The newly entered investor is the hedge fund..
Is Bitcoin's aim to break below 100 million yen?
I want to buy Bitcoin when it falls below 100 million yen!
It seems that many investors think this way.
Certainly, even if there is a corona shock, if you can see the price in the 40 yen range, it is natural that you want to buy it at a cheaper price.But what about the reality? Let's take a look at the Bitcoin chart.
In the weekly chart of Bit Gold since 2017,The purple horizon is around 100 million yenIt will be at the place.
Looking at the movement of Bitcoin since 2018, it has shown a decline of less than 100 million yen several times,When Bitcoin breaks below 100 million yen, sales will come out at onceIn many cases, it can be seen that many individual investors may have been selling at a fire sale from the point of breaking the ground.
As mentioned above, although it hit the bottom of the 2018 yen level in December 12, it has plummeted from the 35 million yen level in 2019. (The rate of decline is smaller than in 100.)
And at the time of the corona shock in March 2020,Crash from the previous high of 115 million yen to 45 yendoing.
After that, Bitcoin showed a sudden rebound and rose to the 110 million yen level, but after that it moved around 100 million yen.Range market price of 95 to 105 million yen.
It seems that the big factor was that there was a plunge market (corona shock) just before, but hereThere was no plunge from the breakthrough that always happened in the past Bitcoin marketIt is
As a result, those who bought Bitcoin at this level still have unrealized gains, and I think there were many who could make a profit in the 120 million yen range judging from the chart!
Bitcoin in August132 yen levelHowever, it will fall to around 105 million yen due to the sharp drop in the Nasdaq market and the gold market.Over 1 yen crashed in one dayWas.
What I would like to pay attention to here isDid not break the 100 million yen levelabout it.Additionally,The price range of around 105 million yen matches the upper limit price range of the range market in June.doing.
I have no choice but to ask the market about the market price, but is it just a coincidence that the price did not fall below 100 million yen and that the purchase came in at the upper limit of the range market price?
OrObviously there is a different movement in the Bitcoin marketIs it?
Reasons why it does not fall compared to the gold market
In the uptrend from early 2020, Bitcoin is showing a movement linked to the gold market, and it has been said for a long time.Digital goldThere is an aspect that was bought as.
So, simply put, as a hedge fund hedgeDiversified investment in safe assetsIn addition to gold, silver, platinum, and palladium were targeted for investment, and it is thought that the virtual currency market "Digital Gold" Bitcoin was also targeted for investment.
Even after the corona shock, the Bitcoin market showed a sudden rebound with the gold market, butFrom around August, it will show a slightly different movement from the gold market.It is like that.
Let's look at the chart.
The chart is a 8-hour chart of the gold market since August. (Blue lineIs the movement of Bitcoin)
As you can see in the chartFrom August onwards, Bitcoin will not link even if the gold market plummetsIs showing.
Especially in the latest moveBitcoin moves up when the gold market plummetsIs showing.
Why are you doing this?
Probably possibleThe gold market was a repulsive market from the corona shock, and it was renewed to the highest price in history rather than the high price before the corona shock, and it was truly a high price landscape feeling.I guess.
Compared to the gold market, which hit a record highBitcoin, which is in the price range of about half of the December 2017 high, is an easy-to-buy investment target (safety asset as a risk hedge).It seems likely.
Is that Softbank G also investing in Bitcoin?
In April 2020, after the corona shock, the Wall Street Journal released interesting news.
according to this,Mr. Son, chairman and president of SoftBank Group, invested in Bitcoin in 2017 at the recommendation of the partner of the acquired hedge fund, but sold it due to the plunge after 2018 and lost about 150 billion yen.about it.
Why did Mr. Son buy Bitcoin?
Is it simply aimed at a profit on sale with Bitcoin, which is expected to have a surge market?
Probably not.As a SoftBank Group and personally, we own a large amount of high-tech stocks such as GAFA (especially Apple) stocks.Invested in Bitcoin as its hedge destinationIsn't it?
If it is a risk hedge, the hedged Apple stock etc. have risen significantly since then, so the loss of Bitcoin was covered without problems.It will be.
It's possible that the investment was made with the inspiration of a genius, but in any case, high-tech stocks such as the Nasdaq market soared from 2017 to 2020, so it is not a big problem for SoftBank Group and President Son. It seems that it was.
Rather, what I want to pay attention to here is alreadyBitcoin may have been invested as a hedge of tech stocks from this pointabout it.
Bitcoin year-end market price depends on hedge fund!
The habit of going high or low in December of the Bitcoin marketthere is.
Until December 2017, I often went to get relatively high prices,Low prices in 2018, 2019 and the last two yearsIs attached.
And will the expected December 2020 market go high or low?
Until 2017, when individual investors were the main players, there was a tendency for the prices to rise in June and December due to bonus periods, etc. I am.
If hedge funds have been gradually increasing their hedge investment in Bitcoin since around 2018,Hedge fund sales, which must be settled every year in late December, may have hit lowsthere is.
This is because both 2018 and 2019 were falling markets, and in December 2020, when the rising market has been developing since the corona shock, if the rising market is expected to continue, it is not just a settlement.Counter-tradingIt seems that it will come.
How will Bitcoin move in the October and November markets? If it becomes a down market,Possibility to go low for 3 consecutive yearsthere is.
However, if the market develops to aim for the August high of 8 million yen,Go to the market by the middle of DecemberIsn't it?
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