BitMex prosecution and Trump shock!What happens to Bitcoin?
BitMex was indicted on November 110nd, and a few hours later, bad news that US President Trump was infected with corona caused the cryptocurrency market to be upset.The Bitcoin market also plummeted, but it quickly rebounded and there was no downtrend from the range market.
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Bitcoin plunged due to BitMex prosecution
After midnight on October 10nd (Japan time), news that was not perfect for crypto investors was delivered.
US Department of Justice (DOJ)とUS Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)ByBitMex chargedIt was discovered that CEO Arthur Hayes and others were accused and CTO Samuel Reed was detained.
In the cryptocurrency industryVery famous as a pioneer of virtual currency FXBitMex is prosecuted, and the virtual currency market suddenly became uneasy, and the Bitcoin market, which had been returning smoothly until then,About 4 yen plungeWas.
Rumors spread about whether it went bankrupt, insider, or a spill, but BitMex regained its composure with a statement that "BitMex's platform is working properly and all funds are safe." I am.
What was this BitMex uproar?
BitMex is a Hong Kong-based cryptocurrency exchange that started as an exchange specializing in Forex.
In the world of cryptocurrencies,The exchange that provided FX trading firstAlthough it is famous as, the content was also very good, so it was immediately supported by cryptocurrency investors,When Bitcoin returned to 2019 million yen in June 6, it had a large market share..
After that, major exchanges such as Binance began to provide FX services, and the influence of hands will be overshadowed, but since they still own a certain share, the virtual currency market is I was upset.
This prosecutionabout,Investors with BitMex's KYC (BitMex does not handle legal tender pairs such as dollars and yen, it is limited to BTC denominated) and its own zero cut system (zero margin system = system that does not generate margin at all) Violates AML guidelines (US anti-money laundering regulations)It has been suspected of operating an unregistered platform.
BitMex with less influence
PerhapsIn 2019, a huge amount of loss cuts will occur and it will crashThere is a possibility that it was done, but as mentioned above, the major exchanges are providing similar services, so it seems that the price dropped by about 4 yen.
In the past, it had a great influence on the volatility of the cryptocurrency market.BitMexHowever, at present, it can be said that the influence has disappeared.In fact, the volatility of the cryptocurrency market did not rise from here.
However, I can't deny the feeling that the news has a bad aftertaste, and a few hours later.Further bad newsIs coming in.
Stock price plummeted due to Trump shock
On October 10nd, more bad news came to the cryptocurrency market, which plunged due to the BitMex turmoil.
What,US President Trump infected with coronavirus(To be exact, the PCR test was positive)Stock market crashIt is said that it is doing.
In general, it seems to be the investor's sentiment that if the current President Trump wins, the market price will rise, and if he loses, the market price will fall. From the flow ofPlunge to Bitcoin, a safe havenI decided to do it.
However, this turmoil will come to an end.An anime world-like development where President Trump shows dramatic resilienceThe next day, the stock market became a surge.
How much has the cryptocurrency market been affected by this series of bad news?
Let's analyze from the chart.
Development that temporarily drops to below 110 million yen but returns
Bitcoin prices before this series of bat news are at the resistance lineAround 115 10,000 yenIt was there.
If we clearly break through this line, we were at a level where the price would rise to the next level.
It can be said that it was a time when it was easy to crash because of such a level, and in the BitMex turmoilFrom 115 million yen to 111 million yenIn the news of President Trump's positive corona infection,Plunge from 112 million yen to 109 million yen levelWas.
The chart is a 10-hour chart of Bitcoin from October 1st to 3rd.
The first rectangular part is the plunge caused by the BitMex turmoil, and the second is the plunge phase during the Trump infection news.
At first4 million yenIt plummeted, according to a BitMex statement2 million yenBack, then3 million yenIt plummeted.
In total, it has plummeted by about 7 yen, but since it has returned 2 yen on the way,Over 5 yen downBy the way, it wasn't the plunge like before, but the plunge of about 5 yen, which is often seen recently.
In other words, for the Bitcoin market, which is reluctant to lower,This series of bad news didn't have much of an impactIt seems that you can see.
BTC seen from Bollinger Bands
It looks like it has moved a lot on the Bitcoin 1-hour chart, but what about on the daily chart?
Analysis with Bollinger BandsI tried to.
An analysis of Bitcoin with the Daily Bollinger Bands reveals that the two big bad news didn't have much of an impact.
The price movement of the candlestick in the square part is October 10nd and 2rd.But on October 10nd, the Bollinger Bands+ 2σ lineThe Bitcoin price that was above plummeted due to the BitMex turmoil,-1σ lineIt is rapidly returning from the place where it broke below.
Even for free, Bollinger BandsTime zone when bandwidth is shrinkingSo it means that it did not fall until the trend occurred.
From this repulsionMiddle line (Bollinger band center line)I will return to the vicinity, but at this time the news of President Trump's infection came.
This shock updated yesterday's lows in the BitMex turmoil,Suddenly dropped to near the -2σ lineTo do.
In order for a trend to occur, it is necessary to break through this -2σ line,It reverses without breaking through and surpasses the -1σ line.It is closing.
In other words, in this continuous bad news, although it broke through the -1 line momentarily, it did not reach the -2σ line.
As you can see from the chart, the Bollinger Bands continue to shrink, so we will continue to do so.Bitcoin is likely to continue in the range of the + 1σ line and the -1σ lineIt can be said.
Range market until November 11rd?
The Bitcoin market, which did not react so much despite such big bad news, may be seen as strong, but to be exact.Hard to move until before the presidential election on November 11It may be that.
Ultimately, by breaking through the + 2σ line or -2σ line of the daily Bollinger band, a trend will be generated either up or down.
As a characteristic of Bollinger BandsIf the bandwidth continues to shrink, then the trend will occurIt will be.
In the October market, it is likely that a lot of such influential news will come out in the future.
What is worrisomeボ ラ テ ィ リ テ ィso,The higher the volatility, the more likely the market is to plummet, and conversely, the lower the volatility, the more likely it is to rise.It will be.
Don't be fooled by the immediate movement of the Bitcoin market in OctoberWatch for volatility and volume fluctuationsI want to do it.
Summary of BitMex prosecution and Trump shock
Too big bad news such as BitMex prosecution and President Trump's infection came down to the Bitcoin market in a row, but although it plummeted momentarily, it did not have a big impact at this time.
Bitcoin market may be solid, but more than thatSituation where it is difficult to move before the presidential electionIt may be.
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