Bitcoin soars!Is the capital inflow into the virtual currency market due to the plunge in the Mothers market?
Bitcoin has surpassed the strong resistance line of 132 million yen and has skyrocketed to 144 million yen.Meanwhile, the stock market is about to fall into turmoil as the US presidential election is imminent.What happens to Bitcoin!Pay attention to the US presidential election and the movement of the dollar.
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Bitcoin soars to 144 million yen
Bitcoin was a resistance line132 million yenIf you break through the platform easily, the momentum will remain as it is as of October 10th.144 million yenIt is soaring to the level.
When Bitcoin went up to 150 million yen, people didn't believe that it was "again!", But the 150 million yen level is just around the corner.
It's easy to say that when it rises, it's easy to say, but it's been a while since the Bitcoin market was so strong.
The chart is the Bitcoin daily chart from the latter half of 2017.
The purple line is the horizontal line,The resistance line that was in the 132 million yen rangeIt has broken through and is skyrocketing.In the future, this horizontal line in the 132 million yen range willSupport lineIf it works, Bitcoin will enter a full-scale rising market.
However, what I would like to pay attention to here this time isPeriod when Bitcoin price exceeded 132 million yen.
This is the third time that the Bitcoin market has exceeded the 132 million yen level.
1 thIs the time of the 2017 surge, from December 2017, 12 to January 5, 2018 (XNUM X days) It was maintained in the 132 million yen range.By the way, on December 12th, it surged to the 8 million yen level and then fell back, and on December 230nd.Dropped to 130 million yen and 9 yen levelHowever, I will reverse and rise from here and go to get 200 million yen again.
2 thIt will be after June 2018, 12, six months after the bottom price was hit in December 2019.
At this time, it will be shot down just before 150 million yen, and eventually until July 7thXNUM X daysIt was the day when only the price was over 132 million yen.
And, on October 2020, 10, it exceeded the 21 million yen level and has been up to now.XNUM X days, The price of 132 million yen or more continues.
If you write it in an easy-to-understand manner,
48st ... 2017 days (December 12 to January 2018)
2nd ... 7 days (June to July 2019)
3rd ... Currently 7 days (October 2020)
In other words, from the history of the Bitcoin market, it is nowThere is a market price at a very high levelSo, if the Bitcoin market is the same as before, it will break below the 132 million yen level at an early stage.
On the contrary, if the market price is clearly different from the previous Bitcoin market price,The 132 million yen level will be a strong support lineIt should be, and the price range of 132 million yen or more should be maintained for a long period of time.
Probably around 132 million yenStop lossMany people have set the value, so if it breaks below this point, it is expected that it will plummet.
Mothers market plunge
What's happening in the stock market when Bitcoin has reached historically high levels?
Last time, we have been driving the domestic stock marketSell sign lights up on Mothers indexI introduced what I did, but what happened after that?
I explained last time, "A new price that is scarier than a demonThe Mothers Index, which has been marked with "", has plummeted since then.
The MACD also seems to be in a very dangerous shape, and it is possible that it will fall further from here.
After the corona shock, the Mothers Index has risen with no squeeze waiting for a squeeze, but it is unlikely that it will stop declining so easily due to the large increase.
Why did the Mothers Index, which was so strong, begin to plummet?
The biggest possible reason, as I've explained many times, is a big event that is too big for financial markets.U.S. presidential electionIs approaching.
Why is Japan's Mothers Index affected?
It's usaFear index (VIX index) risesBecause it has exceeded the dangerous level of 30Flow of making a profit on the stock market and cashingIt seems that is getting stronger. (As of October 10, the VIX index is rising to 28)
Hedge funds would normally hold until the settlement period in December, but the fear index has entered the danger zone for the presidential election on November 12, so profitability has accelerated. If you think about it, it seems to make sense.
Profitable Mothers Index funds will normally be held in cash in case of emergency.
After the corona shock,Nasdaq index,Gold market price TheUpdated the highest price everHas been a driving force in the Japanese stock marketMothers index soarsWas.
Under such circumstances, the cryptocurrency market, which is expected as a next-generation technology, was far from the highest price in history, but remained sluggish for a long period of time.
Bitcoin, which already has a market size of over 25 trillion yen, is in a good position to lag behind other investment markets.
It's no wonder that some of the profitable funds such as the Nasdaq index, the gold market, and the Mothers index are flowing into Bitcoin..
Bitcoin rise from dollar selling that came this time
And another important situation is occurring as a factor supporting the rising market of Bitcoin.
Let's look at the chart first.
The chart is a daily chart of dollar yen. (The orange line is the Bitcoin chart)
What I want to see hereDollar movementis.As an example, I used a dollar-yen chart,The dollar has been sold worldwide since October 10th.It is almost at this timing that Bitcoin broke through the resistance line of 20 million yen and soaredAndDollar selling and Bitcoin buying occur almost at the same timeWill be doing.
If you look closely at the dollar-yen and Bitcoin charts, there is an inverse correlation from around July, and it is possible that dollar selling has led to a rise in Bitcoin.
The sale of the dollar means that the value of the dollar in large numbers is decreasing due to emergency economic measures against the corona recession, and the basis of the stock price rise phenomenon of the recession will be destroyed.
As mentioned above, the fear index (VIX index) of the US stock market is also in the danger zone, and if the dollar continues to be sold, it is likely to lead to the purchase of Bitcoin as a risk hedge.
There is a possibility that the 12 million yen level expected in December will be accelerated.
Dow Jones Industrial Average on October 10th is temporaryCrash of nearly $ 1000And on October 10thFall close to $ 800doing.
Just before the presidential election, the aforementioned fear index (VIX index) has risen further to over 40 points.As expected, Bitcoin was also sold, and it fell from 144 million yen to 140 million yen.
For Bitcoin, it could be a good squeeze, but the story changes when the stock market seems to plunge like a corona shock.There will be a flow of cashing by hedge funds, so even Bitcoin is likely to plummet.
But if there was no stock market crash of concern, in additionBitcoin will continue its upward trend unless it breaks below the 132 million yen support lineWill do.
From the Bitcoin anomaly, we expected to challenge the 12 million yen level in the December market, but if the uptrend that has already occurred continues, it will reach the 150 million yen level even before December. It's going to be a challenge.
Pay attention to the movement of the dollar and the presidential election
The US presidential election is finally approaching, albeit as expectedThe stock market turmoilIs trying to cause.
It will be interesting to see how Bitcoin will be affected when the stock market fluctuates.
I would like to pay more attentionDollar trends.
In the market, than in the presidential electionConcerned about corona expansionYou will also hear the voice.In other words, the already announced economic measures are not enough, and the market may be demanding further economic measures and monetary easing.
If the current dollar continues to weaken, Bitcoin will be more likely to be bought, but if additional economic measures and monetary easing are implemented, the dollar may be bought.At this time, the uptrend of Bitcoin may end.
Bitcoin market volatility as well as stock market towards DecemberThere is a possibility of doing so.
Until November 11rd, if the presidential election volatility (which may be postponed) passes successfully on November 3rd, then US monetary policy, iePay attention to whether the dollar will be bought or sold.
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