[BTC market analysis] Reach the daily channel upper limit / weekly conscious line!Is it falling from the repulsion?Explaining the method of Elliott wave-Part1- [2020/10 / 26-11 / 1]
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Last week's Bitcoin quote review
We will analyze and review the market price of BTC/USD from June 10st to June 26th.
Last week's highlights
Looking back over the past week, the points I would like to pay attention to areReached the channel cap at the daily level and reached the perceived line of $ 13700 at the weekly levelThat's the point.
The above image is a daily chart of BTCUSD.
First of all, at the daily level, we can draw a large ascending channel and reach the upper limit.
The upside is limited as it has been stagnant on the line for days.
The image above is a weekly bar.
It has returned to the highs set at the end of June 2019.
This line is a long-term conscious line, so I would like to pay attention to the movement.
There were no trades last week, but we still have a long position from $ 11150, so we will continue to grow that.
Explaining the method of Elliott wave
TodayElliott wave methodI would like to introduce.
Elliott wave can be said to be my main method, and it has become an indispensable technical in daily market analysis.
It is an excellent technical that can understand the essence of the market, so please master it.
Elliott wave will be a considerable amount to explain, so I will explain it in several weeks.
By the way, last week's article"Why trends occur"Is explained, so please refer to that as well.
What is Elliott Wave?
First, I will explain the basics of Elliott wave.
Elliott Wave is a technique devised by United States equity analyst Ralph Nelson Elliott (1871-1947).
When you open Elliott Wave in one word,"There is a cycle in the market, and there is a constant rhythm in price movements."about it.
And as that rhythm and cycle"5 rising waves, 3 falling waves"There is a cycle of price movements.
In other words, the rising market consists of five consecutive waves of "up → down → up → down → up", followed by a down adjustment market with three waves of "down → up → down".
By the way, there is a theory that this Elliott wave hit the Great Depression of 1929 and the crash of Black Monday in 1987.
About fractal structure
To understand the Elliott wave, we also need to know the fractal structure.
What is a fractal structure?"A structure that represents the same shape as the whole, no matter how small a part is taken."It is sometimes called self-similarity.
This also happens in nature, for example"Snowflake" and "broccoli"Is famous for its fractal structure.
Please be sure to read the following article for a concrete explanation of the fractal structure.
Elliott Wave Three Basic Principles
Elliott Wave has three basic principles that make up its technical.
Principle ① The third wave is never the shortest.
Principle (1) There is no fall in the second wave that completely cancels the rise in the first wave.
Principle ③ The decline of the 4th wave never falls below the peak of the 1st wave.
These are the above three.
I will explain one by one.
The first principle is"The third wave is never the shortest"Is the rule.
The Elliott wave is formed by 5 waves, but the middle 3 waves are never the shortest.
Please note that it is only "not the shortest", not "the longest".
Next, the second principle is"There is no fall in the second wave that completely counteracts the rise in the first wave."Is the rule.
As you can see in the image above, the return of two waves does not break the start of one wave.
Please note that if you break it, you cannot define it as an Elliott wave.
Finally, the third principle is"The fall of the 4th wave never falls below the top of the 1st wave."Is the rule.
As shown in the image, the fall of the 4th wave does not break the apex of the 1st wave.
Basically, the line will be converted to support.
The above three are the three major principles of Elliott Wave.
Next week, I will explain the characteristics of each wave of 1 to 5 waves.
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Outlook this week
I will explain the market outlook for this week.
The scenario hasn't changed in particular, but what can be considered as a future scenario?
① Break up the $ 13700 line
(XNUMX) It becomes resistance and reverses and falls
Is not it.
The above image is one hour.
In the 1-hour bar, the high price has been updated and the low price has been rounded up, and the upward trend is still continuing.
If this high price update / low price round-up is over and the price is changed to low price update / high price devaluation, the trend may change and the price may drop significantly.
So, first of allI would like to continue the trend for one hour or watch the trend of the trend change.
When we convert, we will make a profit on the lower position and consider selling.
This is the end of this week's market price analysis and review.
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