Bitcoin explodes with the start of the US presidential election! How far will it rise when it exceeds the 165 million yen level?
Bitcoin market is skyrocketing.It has surpassed the strong resistance line of 132 million yen, and has surpassed the high price of 150 million yen after the Bitcoin crash, and has soared to the 165 million yen level.It seems to be adjusted as expected, but I investigated the points that should be noted how it will work in the future.
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Stock market surges in US presidential election
Let's start from here.
The stock market crashed just before the US presidential election,Soaring market as soon as the presidential election beginsHas begun.
It can be said that it is the leading role in this big surge marketNasdaq indexLet's check the chart of.
I haven't seen much in the last few daysSoaring marketIs unfolded.
What is the stock market?The normal flow is that when there is a market that has gradually risen, it suddenly plummets.However, it is hard to see a rising market in such a short period of time.
Was soaringFear index (VIX index)Has dropped significantly in one day,Suddenly strong market price at the same time as the US presidential electionHas arrived.
According to the media, Mr. Biden's advantage is that he is buying in anticipation of large-scale economic measures, but it seems that this report is unreasonable.
So why did the stock market soar?
The answer can only be asked by the market, but at least in terms of supply and demand, there is no doubt that the majority of people want to buy than those who want to sell, and those who want to buy are like individual investors. notHedge fundIt is better to think that.
The stock market crash index (VIX index), which crashed before the presidential election, has jumped, and it is a sudden surge, pretending that a bigger down market is coming.
It is not a market that general investors can keep up with.Something recently talked aboutHuge buying with call options and AII have to think that it has entered.
This AI buy was so heavy, not just in the U.S. stock market.Nikkei Stock Average also hits a high for the first time in 29 yearsHowever, it has also entered the easy-to-deliver assets of gold and Bitcoin.
Bitcoin also explodes to the 165 million yen level
I have explained many times here that Bitcoin will rise above 150 million yen.Achieved over 12 million yen about a month earlier than expected in DecemberI have been.
Check out the latest Bitcoin charts.
It is a Bitcoin daily chart after March 2020.
As a milestone of Bitcoin several times,Level around 132 million yenと150 million yen levelHowever, when the market rose in August, 8 million yen functioned as a resistance line and fell back.
However, although it fell back, it did not fall below the 100 million yen level, and after that it was expanded to round up the low price.
And on the Chodaiyo Line on October 10stOver 132 million yenHowever, at this stage, it is strongly expected that the price will exceed the 150 million yen level.
That said, the stock market was in a turbulent state before the US presidential election, and it seems that Bitcoin will also fall from the flow of cashing, but it will gradually rise every day.
Finally the long-awaited Bitcoin holderOver 150 million yenIt was November 11th, and the Chodaiyo Line is on this day as well.
After all, on November 11th, the next daySoar to 165 million yenHowever, the market capitalization has been a long time as well as renewing the highest price since the crash market.Over 30 trillion yen.
As mentioned above, it is easy to think that Bitcoin has joined the ranks of investment markets around the world due to the surge of the Nasdaq index.
However, recent movements do not necessarily correlate the Nasdaq index with Bitcoin price movements, which alone cannot explain the reason for the Bitcoin surge.
Let's also take a look at the gold chart.
The Bitcoin chart (orange line) is placed on the gold CFD daily chart.
Bitcoin and gold price movements that were highly correlated for a whileHowever, as expected, the gold market, which hit a record high, has adjusted, and recently there has been little correlation.
So what about the dollar?
It is strongly pointed out that the recent rise in Bitcoin is related to the dollar.
In other words,The third wave of the new coronavirus has arrivedFrom furtherExpected large-scale economic measuresDoneLarge amount of dollars issuedWill be done.Mass issuance of dollars will cause the value of the dollar to decline relatively, and the dollar will be sold.Dollar depreciationIs assumed.
Take a look at the dollar-yen chart.
More when Bitcoin leaves the hands of individual investors and becomes influenced by institutional investors and hedge fundsStronger relevance to the dollarmust.
Institutional investors and hedge funds use the meaning of risk hedging when investing in stocks.Safe asset investmentBe sure to do.
The most popular safety asset wasGold investment.
Gold has played a role as a safe haven in an emergency throughout its long history, as it is called "emergency gold".
However, gold has become so popular that even in the workplace, it is said that it is good to invest in gold, and the gold market will hit a new high in August 2020.
As it is rising too much, the gold market will also be adjusted.
What has become popular there isBitcoin, also known as "Digital Gold," has a market capitalization of 25 trillion yen.
Originally a popular currency for individual investors, it has become popular as a safe haven investment such as hedge funds that invest in high-tech stocks such as the Nasdaq market.
The relationship with the dollar means that a large amount of dollars will appear in the market, and the stock market is expected to rise.When investing in stocks, a certain percentage of safe assets will be purchased as diversified investment.
In other words, as you can see on the dollar-yen chart from the latter half of July,The weak dollar and the strong bitcoin are linkedThere is a flow to do.
Is Bitcoin safe as long as the mass issuance of dollars continues?
As long as a large amount of dollars are issued, the world will benefit from the surplus phenomenonAs a result, stock prices have risen from the weak dollar, and as a risk hedge.Safe asset investmentIs expected.
On November 11, the number of new coronavirus infections per day exceeded 6, with 1 in the United States and 60 in France, with the number of infected people increasing rapidly, especially in Europe and the United States. 13 waves are comingThere seems to be no doubt about it.
When a curfew is issued in Paris, France, and further adverse effects on the economy are expected in the future,Expectations for new large-scale economic measuresWill be
The weak dollar has already demanded this situationIt seems that the stock market, the gold market, and the Bitcoin market are following this.
In the investment saying "Buy by rumor and sell by factHowever, if the world economy shows a recovery trend more than expected, a vaccine with a strong effect is developed, or if emergency economic measures are not needed, more dollars will be issued. It will not be done, and the market price may cool down.
In that sense,It is also necessary to pay attention to the increase and decrease in the number of newly infected people with the new coronavirusIt becomes.
Pay attention to the Nasdaq index, which is a leading indicator
What I would like to pay attention to along with the movement of the dollarNasdaq index.
The US stock market has risen sharply in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Nasdaq Index, and the SP500,The biggest rise is the Nasdaq index.
The reason is thought to be the constituent stocks of the Nasdaq index,High-tech companies centered on GAFA are moving most sensitivelyIt will be said.
Hedge funds that invest mainly in high-tech companies such as GAFA tend to prefer Bitcoin to gold as a safe haven investment..
Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index haven't seen much correlation these days, but they have shown a strong correlation in recent days.
For that reason, in predicting the future movement of Bitcoin,How far the Nasdaq index will rise is a very important pointIt seems to be.
Depending on the result of the presidential election, there may be a big upheaval
And one more thing, it was a really big big event, but I would like to pay attention to it.The ending of the US presidential election.
The election itself is likely to end in the form of Mr. Biden's advantage, but the results are still unknown, and in some cases the president may decide by trial.
Various information is scattered on the Internet, but there are cases where fraud is revealed, and the longer it is, the worse the impact on the investment market may be.
As of November 11th, it has had a positive rather than a bad impact on the global investment market, but be aware that the flow may change after next week.
The Nasdaq index and Bitcoin market that started to skyrocket at the same time as the presidential electionSo it's possible that a big upheaval awaits the long-term turmoil in the presidential election.
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