Vaccine development causes the stock market to skyrocket!What about Bitcoin?
After Bitcoin rose to the 165 million yen level, the news of the successful development of a vaccine for Pfizer Pharmaceutical's new coronavirus was broadcast, and the ceremony market has become a surge.Bitcoin has plummeted temporarily and then returned to price, but how will Bitcoin move towards the December market?
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New York Dow futures temporarily up $ 1700 in Pfizer vaccine development
US presidential electionI don't know if it's over or it's still going on, but on November 11th, the week after the election, big news suddenly jumped in.
"Pfizer Pharmaceutical succeeds in developing a new coronavirus vaccine!'
Many would have thought that vaccines wouldn't be developed for the time being, but it's all about the US stock market.The stock market reacted significantly to this unexpected news, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures temporarily1700 dollarIt became a big surge market price exceeding.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a record high for a time with this surge30000 dollarIt soared to the platform.
Then, the Japanese stock market soared, easily breaking through the wall of the 24000 yen level, which had been bounced many times even in Abenomics, and renewing the high price after the burst of the bubble economy.25400 YenIt has risen to the platform.
However, this vaccine development news seems strange.
Many of you have read the news, but it seems that there are still many problems left.
In other words,The stock market is already making a fuss as if Corona is over, but Pfizer's vaccine is half-confident.Isn't that the place?
Evidence from theory, Pfizer's stock price is as follows.
Pfizer's share price soared on November 11, but has been sluggish since then.
Apparently, in the stock market, vaccine development news provided the impetus for a surge, but it doesn't seem to matter.
The surge in US stocks has skyrocketed stock markets around the world, the US dollar has been repurchased, and the dollar-yen exchange rate has turned around.Yen depreciation and dollar appreciationHas become.
In addition, energy-related prices such as crude oil have skyrocketed, and gold prices have also risen.
Well thenHow did Bitcoin react?
Bitcoin temporarily dropped by about 8 yen
How did Bitcoin react to the news of "Pfizer Pharmaceuticals, Vaccine Development"?
Until just before the news came out, Bitcoin was on the verge of a high price break and was in the midst of an uptrend over the last few days.
When this news was announced in such a situation, the number of people running profitably increased rapidly, and in a few hoursAbout 164 yen plummeted from 156 million yen to 8 million yendoing.
If a vaccine is developed, Bitcoin will be sold at a high dollar market due to the association that the corona will end.It seems to be the flow.
However, when the movement of profitability stopped, it stopped falling and again.160 million yenIt is changing on a stand.
Like the stock price of Pfizer Pharmaceuticals mentioned above, it seems that the majority of investors still want to see the future trend, and it did not cause a panic sale.
In any case, how the soaring stock market will move in the future is likely to be a very important point for the Bitcoin market.
Why the Nasdaq market didn't react to the Dow Jones Industrial Average
In the stock market surge this time, a little change is happening at the same time.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the SP500 have skyrocketed,The Nasdaq market, which has been the driving force of the stock market, is closing cheaply rather than soaringIt is
The move continues the next day and beyond, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the SP500 rising, but the Nasdaq market declining.
So far, the Nasdaq market has exploded in high-tech related (DX related) such as GAFA, ZOOM, Netflix, butVaccine development-End of corona-Return to previous lifeIs it an association?DX-related stocks plummeteddoing.
As you know, the Nasdaq Index is made up of high-tech stocks, so there is an unusual situation where the Dow Jones Industrial Average is high but the Nasdaq market is declining.
The most famous company in the world after corona is the United StatesZOOMProbably a company.
It can be said that it is a representative stock related to DX, but the stock price has skyrocketed since March,Plump from "vaccine development" news on November 11thdoing.
On the chart, if it seems to fill the window in early September, there may be a further decline.
However, when many investors are skeptical about Pfizer's stock price, why are high-tech stocks such as ZOOM, the representative stock of DX, plummeting?
This week is SQ week
Another major reason is in the stock market.SQ (Special Quotation).
November is not a major SQ, but on Friday, November 11th, Nikkei 11 options trading, etc.SQ settlement dateIt is quite possible that foreign investors have aimed at this area.
Until now, I have been able to challenge many times and have not been able to greatly exceed the 24000 yen level, but this time I have easily surpassed it.
The Nikkei XNUMX futures market is one of the world's futures trading markets.Third largest marketIt can be said that there is a high possibility that this has been greatly raised.
Since the major SQ settlement date for each market is approaching in December, there is a possibility of a scenario of raising the Nikkei average toward this point.
Correlation between Bitcoin and dollar buying
After the corona shock,A large amount of money has been supplied to the world from the emergency economic measures caused by the corona shock, which reduces the value of the US dollar ➤ Buying safe assets from the weak dollarWas becoming popular.
Bitcoin, which rose to gold, silver and platinum and had a market capitalization of over 20 trillion yen at that time, was also bought as "digital gold".From the low price of 44 yen due to the corona shock to the 11 million yen level in early NovemberI have been.
Here, in response to the news that the new coronavirus vaccine was successfully developed, the temporary drop of 8 yen was Bitcoin, which has risen in response to dollar selling, so selling with dollar buying It's just coming out.
From late July to early November, Bitcoin and the dollar (the orange line is the dollar-yen daily chart) were almost inversely correlated.
However, although the dollar was bought sharply this time, Bitcoin temporarily fell by 8 yen, but has since returned to the 160 million yen level.
Looking at the chart, it seems that dollar buying will continue for some time, but what happens to Bitcoin if the dollar continues to rise?
How will Bitcoin move towards December?
Breaking through the strong resistance line and entering November 1165 million yenBitcoin soared to the level, and the highest price ever updated in December 2017237 million 8320 yenIs it going to aim for, or is it the usual long with 165 million yen as a high priceAdjustmentAre you going in?
The leading role in buying Bitcoin this time is centered on high-tech stocksHedge fundHowever, as long as the stock price continues to rise, there will be no major adjustments to Bitcoin, and it is likely that it will aim for a high price.
Although the gold price of the preceding safe assets has also been adjusted, it has not fallen so much.In addition, the price of crude oil, which had once plummeted to a negative price, has skyrocketed to the $ 40 level.
Since the commodity market is also strong, I think Bitcoin will rise as long as this global trend does not change.
There are some notable points such as this week's November SQ, December's major SQ, and mid-December when hedge fund settlement sales will be easier.It is quite possible that the market will continue until at least December..
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