[BTC market analysis] Is it about to change the trend at the upper price limit?Explaining the method of Elliott wave-Part3-[2020/11 / 9-11 / 15]
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Last week's Bitcoin quote review
We will analyze and review the market price of BTC/USD from June 11st to June 9th.
Last week's highlights
Looking back over the past week, the points I would like to pay attention to areFurther highs, the uptrend continuesThat's the point.
The above image is an hourly chart of BTC USD.
The movement of the last week is displayed with a red arrow.
As you can see, the price has hit a higher and the uptrend continues.
Last week's market was particularly untouched, and it was a week of wait-and-see.
However, the momentum of the rise is also declining, and it seems good to aim for a short of trend change from here.
For the time being, we will wait for the sale until the sign of conversion is given.
Explaining the method of Elliott wave
TodayElliott Wave Method-Part3-I would like to introduce.
Elliott wave can be said to be my main method, and it has become an indispensable technical in daily market analysis.
It is an excellent technical that can understand the essence of the market, so please master it.
Elliott wave will be a considerable amount to explain, so I will explain it in several weeks.
This is a continuation of last week's article, so if you haven't read it yet, please read last week's article first and then read today's article.
Excellent compatibility with Elliott wave!How to use Fibonacci retracement
This time, it goes very well with Elliott WaveHow to use Fibonacci RetracemenI will explain.
This is a very important time, so please take a closer look.
With Fibonacci, you can predict how far each Elliott wave will grow and where it will stop.
This time, I will explain based on the waveform of BTCUSD from December 2019, 12 to January 18, 2020.
The actual chart is below.
You can see that it has a very beautiful 5 wave formation.
I will proceed with the explanation based on this waveform.
Second wave length = 2 wave x 1 or x 0.5
First, basically calculate the length of each wave based on the length of one wave.
The length of the second wave isIt is easy to return 1% or 50% to the first wave.
In this case, it stopped lowering cleanly at the position of 61.8% return and turned upward.
If you can make a long entry at this position, you can considerably limit the loss cut width and catch a big rise.
Next, I will explain the second wave.
3rd wave length = 1 wave x 1.618, or x 2.00, or x 2.168
Next is the length of the third wave.It tends to be 1 times, 1.618 times, and 2 times for one wave..
Earlier, I drew Fibonacci from the start point of one wave at the end point, but this time I draw the start point from the end point.
Then, 1.618 times or double lines will come out.
This time, you can see that the line has just stopped rising at 1.618 times.
If the three waves are strong, they can rise up to twice the length.
Next, I will explain the second wave.
4th wave length = 1-3 waves x 0.382
Next is the length of the 4th wave.4 waves tend to return 1% to 3 to 38.2 waves.
As shown in the image, when the end point of 1 waves is subtracted from the start point of 3 wave, it stops lowering at the position of 38.2% and enters the 5th wave.
Next, I will explain the length of the 5th wave.
Second wave length = 5 wave x 1 or x 1
The length of 5 waves isIt tends to be 1 times (same price range) or 1 times for one wave.
Please use Fibonacci to shift the price range.
This time it is almost the same length as one wave.
How to find the adjusted ABC wave
Now that you know how to find the length of the 5 propulsion waves, I will explain how to find the adjusted ABC wave at the end.
The adjustment wave comes out after the end of the 2nd, 4th and 5th waves.
This time, I will explain the length using two adjustment waves.
First, again, find the length based on the A wave.
B wave: A wave x 0.5, 0.618
C wave: A wave x 0.618, x 1, x 1.618
It is easy to become.
It's small and difficult to understand, but the B wave is 61.8% back to the A wave, and the C wave is the same length as the A wave.
In this way, if you can predict the length of each wave, you can grasp the initial movement of the trend from the head to the tail, and you can make a big profit.
How to use Fibonacci this time is very important, so please master it.
next week,Entry & profit points at Elliott WaveI will explain.
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Outlook this week
I will explain the market outlook for this week.
First of all, please take a look at the 4-hour bar.
Looking at the 4-hour bar, the uptrend has continued for a long time, and I think it is safe to switch to a downtrend.
However, there is no sign of a trend change yet.
It will be easier to sell if the head and shoulders like the image start to appear.
For the time being, there is still a risk of renewing the high price, so it is in a state where it can not sell, so keep watching and wait.Wait for the trend change.
This is the end of this week's market price analysis and review.
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